Making Monster Energy Supercross predictions in 2021 is a tough job. Just when you think you have a bead on the 2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series, it all turns upside down—or someone falls down. There is enough data to assemble a credible Top 5 for your RMFantasySX.com leagues, but putting them in the correct order is what wins or loses championships. All your picks can be in the Top 5, but the range of scoring is from 25 points (every rider at least off by two spots) to 107 points, if you get every position spot-on. Hang on, as the ride through the whoops will be a rough one.
- There were three repeat riders in the Top 5 at Atlanta 1 and 2. Eli Tomac went 1-5, while Chase Sexton has a 2-2 record and Jason Anderson was 4-3. I see no reason to leave them out of your Top 5 for A3. While consistency isn’t everything, it matters more in the tripleheaders.
- Cooper Webb and Ken Roczen are your series leaders, so they round out the Top 5. Webb’s P6 at Atlanta 2 was his first time outside of the Top 5 since the opener in Houston. Roczen won A2 handily, so it’s hard to leave Roczen out of your Top 5, except for the fact that he finished in P9 at A1. Regardless, the Top 5 for A3, in alphabetical order, is Anderson, Roczen, Sexton, Tomac, and Webb. Now, onto the hard job of handicapping.
- Chase Sexton is poised for a win, and he has nothing to lose. After two P2s in Atlanta, it’s looking good for Sexton to take the win at A3. He will be loose, while Webb and Roczen have lots to think about—13 points separate them with three Main Events remaining. Sexton might not pull it off, but don’t be surprised if he does.
- Eli Tomac knows how to win at superspeedways, so he should be running up front. His 1-1-5 record speaks for itself at the big venues. There’s no reason to believe Tomac won’t win again, so he’s a good choice to finish on top. I think Sexton is ready to win, with Tomac right there to keep him honest. Of course, the start will have a massive impact on how A3 plays out at the front.
- Cooper Webb’s consistency should return at Atlanta 3. Prior to A2, Webb had eight consecutive podiums. Expect him to return to the rostrum at A3, and extend his 13-point lead over Roczen.
- Choosing between Ken Roczen and Jason Anderson for P4 is difficult. Roczen is 4-9-1 at the superspeedways, while Anderson is 7-4-3. In the last four rounds, Roczen is 6-3-2-9-1 and Anderson is 3-7-5-4-3. That’s not much help either. Anderson seems like a safer bet to finish well, even with a poor start, so I put him in P4 with Roczen taking the final Top 5 position. My name could be Mud quite easily, and Roczen could repeat at Atlanta. That’s what makes fantasy supercross so much fun!
- Strong dark horse picks for the Top 5 include Justin Barcia, Dylan Ferrandis, and Aaron Plessinger. Barcia and Ferrandis have been in the Top 5 at Atlanta, and Plessinger has led laps. Starts will loom big—if Ferrandis gets one, he’s a podium threat. Normally, I would throw Malcolm Stewart into the mix, but he will be riding injured.
- The Wild Card is P13 for A3, and there are many riders to choose from. Broc Tickle is on an 11-14-13 run. Mártin Dávalos is 16-12-12 in the last three races. Max Anstie has gone 13-22-14. Vince Friese and Kyle Chisholm would have been in the mix, but, per Racer X, Friese is out for Saturday with broken ribs, and Chisholm’s status is undetermined after a shoulder injury. I’m going with Broc Tickle, though Dávalos and Anstie are great alternatives. If you want to take a big chance with a big potential upside, go with the limping Stewart.
- Here’s the quickstart guide if you’re not up to reading the reasons for the picks:
1. Chase Sexton
2. Eli Tomac
3. Cooper Webb
4. Jason Anderson
5. Ken Roczen
P13 Wild Card: Broc Tickle
- Joey Savatgy broke a lot of hearts on Tuesday, including mine, as a Wild Card pick. Savatgy looked good for P9 late in the race, but surrendered the spot to Dean Wilson with three laps remaining. Getting the Wild Card can turn a mediocre racing into a great day, but it was not to be for those who pinned their hopes on Savatgy. With three rounds remaining, I’m in the top six-percent. My goal is the same as last year—top one-percent. I did it last year, but I’m going to need some big rounds to get back there for 2021.
- Be sure to watch Atlanta 3 on Saturday, and check out our Ultimate Motorcycling 2021 Monster Energy Supercross TV Schedule to know when to tune in. It’s live on NBCSN, which is great for those who don’t want to cut loose with $4.99/month for PeacockTV. In fact, the rest of the races will be shown live on NBSCN. Still, PeacockTV is worth it for its coverage of Qualifying.
Photography by Align Media, Feld Entertainment, and Ryne Swanberg
2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 14 of 17 rounds)
- Cooper Webb, 313 points (6 wins, 10 podiums, 12 Top 5s)
- Ken Roczen, 300 (4W, 9P, 12 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 278 (3W, 7P, 10 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 246 (1W, 4P, 9 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 215 (1 P, 3 T5)
- Jason Anderson, 211 (2 P, 5 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 192 (3 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 183 (1P, 2 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 168 (3P, 3 T5)
- Joey Savatgy, 166
- Dean Wilson, 124
- Zach Osborne, 123 (1P, 2 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 120 (1P, 4 T5)
- Martín Dávalos, 113
- Chase Sexton, 110 (2P, 4 T5)
- Broc Tickle, 100
- Justin Brayton, 96 (1P, 1 T5)
- Vince Friese, 94
- Kyle Chisholm, 80
- Justin Bogle, 78
- Max Anstie, 48
- Benny Bloss, 48
- Mitchell Oldenburg, 29
- Brandon Hartranft, 28
- Cade Clason, 22
- Tyler Bowers, 23
- Alex Ray, 22
- Justin Starling, 17
- Shane McElrath, 15
- Carlen Gardner, 12
- Kevin Moranz, 11
- Josh Hill, 7
- Fredrik Norén, 7
- Adam Enticknap, 7
- Scott Champion, 5
- Henry Miller, 4
- Austin Politelli, 3
- Joan Cros, 1
