Supercross is done and dusted, so now it’s time to play outdoors. Predicting the first round of any championship series is always a difficult task, and the 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Championship Series is going to be trickier than usual. Even though Supercross Champion Ken Roczen won’t be at Fox Raceway in Pala, California, it’s still a stacked and unpredictable field lining up on Saturday afternoon. No matter how hard it is, we still have to come up with a top five and the always-challenging Wild Card for RMFantasyMX. So, let’s get started.

1. Riders returning from injury are always a shot in the dark. At Pala, we’ve got Jett Lawrence, Eli Tomac, RJ Hampshire, Aaron Plessinger, and Justin Barcia either riding for the first time since an injury, or close to it. That’s half of last year’s top 450MX top 10.

2. There’s only one rookie likely to trouble the top five: Haiden Deegan. The Fox Raceway National is Deegan’s first time out on a 450, as he’s fresh off a 250SX West title. You can’t deny that he’ll be ready when the gate drops, but it’s impossible to know exactly what that will mean. The world of 450s is quite different from what he has been dealing with on a 250.

3. Hunter Lawrence comes into the Nationals with a score to settle. He narrowly missed the coveted Supercross title and will want to get off to a strong start in the Nationals. He’s a known quantity, as he’s been racing and is settled in. While he might not win, he’ll be near the top unless something catastrophic happens.

   

4. If he’s healthy, Jett Lawrence is the favorite to win. Any information about his readiness to race two National motos is noise, probably even for Jett. No one will know how Jett will do until the gate drops. It’s unlikely he would lineup if he didn’t think he would be competitive, so it’s doubtful we’ll see Jett outside the top five. However, he may ride a bit carefully until he gets his race pace back, and he’ll likely settle for P2 behind his brother.

5. Jorge Prado knows outdoors, and by all accounts is ready to compete for the National Championship. It’s hard to count a World Champion out of the top five. Prado was inconsistent in the stadiums, and will be motivated to rectify that in the great outdoors. Prado will be fast. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll be there at the front at the end of each moto. Where Prado will be when the checkers fly is anyone’s guess, so I have him in P3 with crossed fingers.

6. After an odd second half of the Supercross season, Eli Tomac will want to re-establish his competitive credentials. Tomac does well at Fox Raceway, so look for him to be running in the top five. How high in the top five is up for conjecture. He could beat anyone above him on this list if things line up, so feel free to place him wherever you like.

6. We could see a win or a DNF from Haiden Deegan at Pala. Deegan has gotten smarter as a racer over the last year. The debacle at the SuperMotocross Final might have taught him a lesson or two. While you can’t count Deegan out, you can’t count on him either. Anywhere he finishes won’t be a surprise to me, but I think he’s a good pick for somewhere in the top five. The big question will be if he can keep the bike on two wheels for two motos.

8. Chase Sexton is another mystery rider. Sexton can win at Fox Raceway, or he can struggle. We won’t know which Sexton will show up until the gate drops. I called him a dark horse favorite at the Supercross finales at Salt Lake City, and we all saw how that played out. If you want to slot Sexton anywhere in the top five, I’m not going to argue with you. I’ll play the waiting game.

9. The Wild Card is P10, and that could be any of 20 riders. Cooper Webb is riding out his contract and likely focusing on staying healthy for his World Supercross championship run. I’ll put him down for P10, though it could be RJ Hampshire, Malcolm Stewart, Aaron Plessinger, Dylan Ferrandis, Justin Barcia, or Valentin Guillod, just a sampling. A sound strategy would be to put riders’ names into a hat and pull one out with your eyes closed.

Photography by Align Media and Don Williams

2026 Fox Raceway National Motocross Fantasy Picks

1. Hunter Lawrence
2. Jett Lawrence
3. Jorge Prado
4. Eli Tomac
5. Haiden Deegan

   Wild Card P10: Cooper Webb

2025 AMA Pro Motocross Championship Final Standings

1. Jett Lawrence, Honda, 509 points
2. Hunter Lawrence, Honda, 454
3. Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 395
4. Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 389
5. RJ Hampshire, Husqvarna, 366
6. Jorge Prado, Kawasaki, 262
7. Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 240
8. Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 204
9. Valentin Guillod, Yamaha, 201
10. Justin Barcia, GasGas, 196
11. Coty Schock, Yamaha, 183
12. Harri Kullas, Husqvarna, 158
13. Cooper Webb, Yamaha, 151
14. Chase Sexton, KTM, 147
15. Benoit Paturel, Suzuki, 131
16. Mitchell Harrison, Kawasaki, 129
17. Joey Savatgy, Honda, 124
18. Lorenzo Locurcio, GasGas, 121
19. Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 111
20. Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 91
21. Colt Nichols, Suzuki, 90
22. Romain Pape, Yamaha, 58
23. Grant Harlan, Yamaha, 50
24. Marshal Weltin, Yamaha, 50
25. Henry Miller, Honda, 48
26. Kyle Webster, Honda, 45
27. John Short IV, Honda, 30
28. Derek Kelly, Yamaha, 30
29. Shane McElrath, Honda, 29
30. Tony Cairoli, Ducati, 25
31. Derek Drake, Yamaha, 24
32. Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 24
33. Matti Jorgensen, Husqvarna, 20
34. Bryce Shelly, Yamaha, 20
35. Benny Bloss, Beta, 18
36. Cornelius Tøndel, Honda, 18
37. Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 17
38. Jeremy Hand, Honda, 15
39. Scotty Verhaeghe, Yamaha, 9
40. Mason Semmens, KTM, 9
41. Bryson Gardner, Beta, 7
42. Max Miller, Kawasaki, 7
43. Brad West, Yamaha, 7
44. Jack Rogers, Kawasaki, 4
45. Tyler Stepek, Yamaha, 4
46. Dante Oliveria, KTM, 3
47. James Harrington, Yamaha, 2
48. Justin Rodbell, Honda, 2
49. Nicholas Lapucci, Kawasaki, 2
50. Ryder Floyd, Yamaha, 1
51. Justin Cokinos, Yamaha, 1