2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Fast Facts

Don Williams

May 6, 2026

2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Fast Facts — The 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series comes down to a final battle between Hunter Lawrence (#96) and Ken Roczen (#94).

What a season it has been. Ken Roczen heads into the finale at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City with a one-point lead over Hunter Lawrence. Entering the final race, both riders have five wins, a dozen podiums, and 14 top-five finishes. The 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series couldn’t get much tighter. Now, it’s time for some 2026 Salt Lake City Supercross fantasy picks and tips. Don’t worry, RMFantasySX players, it’s not going to be easy.

It’s a toss-up between Ken Roczen and Hunter Lawrence, with one factor the likely tipping point: the start. So, let’s look at the start results for the two championship protagonists. In the 13 rounds with a Main Event, there are two statistics to consider: average 1st lap position and median 1st lap position. While the average position is helpful, the mean lessens the impact of outlier starts. Lawrence has a lap 1 average position of 2.77 and a median of 2.0. Roczen’s numbers are not as good. He has a 4.15 average and a 3.0 median. This gives Lawrence a decided advantage, and we’re looking at slivers of data at this point.

2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Ken Roczen. — Ken Roczen.

Regardless of the start, both Roczen and Lawrence have passed each other for wins. Roczen passed Lawrence at Glendale, St. Louis, and Philadelphia to win. In all three cases, the passes were very early by lap 4. Lawrence passed Roczen to win twice in 2026, both times mid-race: 18 laps in at Arlington and 14 laps in at Nashville. The takeaway here is that Roczen only passes Lawrence early in the race to win, while Lawrence relies exclusively on mid-race passes. That doesn’t help pick a winner, but it’s something to watch for as the night unfolds.

2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Hunter Lawrence — Hunter Lawrence.

If Roczen and Lawrence find themselves in a bar-to-bar tussle, Lawrence has an advantage. Should both riders go down in a collision, Lawrence can push the start button and be on his way quickly. Roczen will have to kickstart his bike. From a championship perspective, if both riders finish off the podium, Roczen will have to beat Lawrence by two positions to avoid losing the title due to the tiebreaker system.

Roczen had the momentum going into Denver last week, though Lawrence erased that with a win. While Roczen’s 1-1-2 performance in the last three rounds is better than Lawrence’s 6-3-1, Lawrence rebounded to take the Denver win. Momentum is another factor that’s hard to gauge in a battle like this, though Lawrence is on an upward trajectory while Roczen’s win streak was snapped. Lawrence gets the slightest of advantages here.

Rice-Eccles Stadium is a slight advantage for Roczen. Roczen won one of the seven Salt Lake City rounds during the strange COVID season of 2020. In five 250SX rides and one 450SX Main Event at SLC, Lawrence has never won.

Putting this all together, I have to go with Lawrence for the Salt Lake City (and Championship) win. It’s going to be close, so you can pick Ken Roczen with just as much confidence. It could be an epic night in Utah with one uncomfortable post-race interview. I’ll be thrilled for whoever takes the crown and disappointed for the runner-up.

2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Chase Sexton — Chase Sexton.

Lawrence and Roczen may be squabbling over P2 at the end of the night, as there is a spoiler: Chase Sexton. Sexton has won the last three Salt Lake City rounds. Sexton is on a 4-4-7-5 run, so you know he would like nothing more than to beat both championship candidates and claim his second win of 2026. While it’s not likely, it is something to consider, especially if Lawrence and Roczen battle hard and slow each other down. Neither will care if Sexton beats them. If you’re looking for a final round Hail Mary, this is it. I have Sexton down for P3.

2026 Salt Lake City Supercross Fantasy Picks and Tips: Eli Tomac — Eli Tomac.

Like Sexton, Eli Tomac is a three-time Salt Lake City winner. However, two of those were in 2021 and the other in 2017. Tomac was impressive in his post-injury comeback last week. His P3 finish was his best since a P3 in round 10 at Birmingham. That makes Tomac a strong podium contender and outside pick for the win. Although I am slotting Tomac in P4, I won’t be shocked if he exceeds that expectation.

Cooper Webb is another rider in the podium mix. While Webb’s dust-up with Justin Cooper last week dropped him to P11 at the end, before that, Webb was on a 2-2-2 run. Anywhere you want to put Webb from P3 to P5 is good with me, though I’ve already picked four riders ahead of him. Cooper is another possibility, though his unlucky pair of P13s in the last two races is not inspiring. So, it’s Webb in P5.
Garret Marchbanks.

Don’t forget that Webb, Tomac, Cooper, and Sexton will finish in that order in the championship, unless something catastrophic happens. The only motivation for those four riders is pride, and maybe a bonus. Those aren’t meaningless factors, but we have seen top riders phone in the final round when it doesn’t matter where they finish.

The Wild Card is P10, and there are a few choices. Dean Wilson is a strong Wild Card contender, going 11-12-8-9 since he joined the 2026 Supercross Championship Series. Another short-term rider worth considering is Justin Barcia, who has gone 11-8 in the last two rounds. That puts both consistently in the P10 neighborhood. Dylan Ferrandis is a solid choice, as he’s on a 7-10-6-9-12-10 run since his injury, making him very familiar with that part of the finishing order. Garrett Marchbanks has gone 10-10-9-8-11-8-7 since the break, though he looks more likely to crack the top five than drop to P10. Don’t rule out Shane McElrath, who has three P10 finishes this year, including twice in the last four races. I haven’t had much Wild Card luck in 2026, so you might want to avoid my selection of Wilson.