As the 2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series sails through the midway point, the winds of change are blowing strongly. Previous sure-thing picks are becoming less reliable, and new riders are establishing themselves as Top 5 selections of your RMFantasySX.com team. Arlington 1 was tough on almost everyone, so let’s see what we can make of A2—and, yes, it hurts that A2 is not at Anaheim in 2021.
- Cooper Webb remains your best bet in fantasy supercross. Webb has won three of the last four races, finishing in P2 in Daytona, where Eli Tomac was a prohibitive favorite that came through. Webb has more Main Event wins than any other rider, as well as more podiums. He has pulled even with Ken Roczen for most Top 5 finishes, with nine in ten rounds. Picking anyone but Webb to win at A2 is a risky proposition.
- Picking P2 is pretty much a random act. Four different riders have finished in the last four rounds in P2—Webb, Roczen, Justin Barcia, and Marvin Musquin. Webb is locked in a P1 pick, and Musquin’s status is unknown after a hard crash in the A1 Main Event. That leaves you with Roczen and Barcia. Roczen has hit the skids—after a five-race podium run, he has missed the podium the last three rounds. Barcia is on a 3-6-2 charge. Put Barcia in P2 for A2.
- The P3 pick is between two surging riders—Jason Anderson and Aaron Plessinger. Both have been in the Top 5 twice in the last three rounds, and were the previous two P3 finishers. Anderson’s 5-7-3 run is incrementally better than Plessinger’s 9-3-5 streak, and Anderson’s podium came in A1, with Plessinger’s at the unusual Daytona track. That’s enough to give the nod to Anderson for P3. Yes, that’s a repeat of the Arlington 2 podium.
- Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac have combined for just three Top 5 finishes in the last three rounds. If, as I have suggested, they’ve been on your RMFantasySX.com team the last few rounds, they have not been paying off. That leaves you with a hard choice. You can stick with proven brand names such as Roczen and Tomac, who are currently faltering, or go with the emerging pack of Plessinger, Chase Sexton, and Malcolm Stewart. Keep in mind that Roczen and Tomac struggled after poor starts at Arlington 1. On some level, the wisdom of your choice is revealed when the pack crosses the holeshot line.
- Scoring two P4s in three rounds, Roczen is a reasonable P4 choice for Arlington 2. Much will be revealed about Roczen’s title hopes in Arlington. Just as Daytona was a must-win for Tomac, Roczen needs to at least challenge for the podium. I’m going with Roczen for P4 at A2, and that’s not a confident call at all. At the same time, Roczen is perfectly capable of winning Arlington 2.
- With the P4 lined up, the choice for P5 is brutal—Plessinger, Sexton, Tomac, or Stewart. Selecting any of those riders is a good call. It’s no longer just a numbers game—momentum figures into it. Of these three riders, only Tomac is likely to pull off a win—he already has two this year—but when he gets in a funk, he does not do well. Tomac’s P8 at A1 was pretty funky. However, we’re picking P5. Stewart has two P5s under his belt, but no better than a P4. Plessinger also has a pair of P5s, plus a podium. Sexton is an intriguing pick. After crashing out of the second round and missing six races due to injury, Sexton is 8-4. I’m going with Sexton, though, like my P4 pick, it’s finger-crossing time.
- The Wild Card is P8, and there are plenty of candidates. The last six rounds have produced six P8 finishers—Joey Savatgy, Dylan Ferrandis, Anderson, Sexton, and Tomac. I’ve already found positions for Sexton and Anderson, so they’re out. You have to be a brave prognosticator to pick Tomac for a P8 repeat at Arlington 2. Ferrandis DNFed the A1 Main after a hard pass by Anderson. That leaves Savatgy, and he is as good a choice as any.
- For those interested in the picks rather than the tips and commentary, here they are:
1. Cooper Webb
2. Justin Barcia
3. Jason Anderson
4. Ken Roczen
5. Chase Sexton
P8 Wild Card: Joey Savatgy
9. I am less confident in my picks this week than I have been all year. It’s easy to go with the numbers, and that’s what I typically do. Patterns emerge, and all you have to do is trust them. Last year, I finished in the top one-percent of RMFantasySX players. Right now, I’m just outside of the top five-percent of players—not bad, with room for improvement. Round 11 could get me a huge haul of points, as I got at Daytona, or a meager haul when none of the picks line-up right.
- We have a 2021 Monster Energy Supercross TV Schedule to make sure you don’t miss Arlington 2, or any other race. Keep in mind that the NBCSN coverage of A2 and A3 is delayed at least two hours. If you haven’t already, it’s time to pony up for PeacockTV.com. Really, at $4.99 a month, it’s a great value. Remember, qualifying from every round is shown live on the Peacock feed.
Photography by Align Media and Feld Entertainment
2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 10 of 17 rounds)
- Cooper Webb, 223 points (4 wins, 7 podiums, 9 Top 5s)
- Ken Roczen, 216 (3W, 6P, 9 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 190 (2W, 4P, 6 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 176 points (1W, 4P, 6 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 152 (1 P, 3 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 152 (3 T5)
- Jason Anderson, 137 (1 P, 2 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 135 (3P, 3 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 123 (1P, 2 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 122 (1P, 1 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 120 (1P, 4 T5)
- Joey Savatgy, 111
- Justin Brayton, 96 (1P, 1 T5)
- Dean Wilson, 84
- Vince Friese, 72
- Martín Dávalos, 70
- Justin Bogle, 67
- Broc Tickle, 63
- Kyle Chisholm, 56
- Benny Bloss, 48
- Chase Sexton, 44
- Brandon Hartranft, 23
- Max Anstie, 21
- Shane McElrath, 15
- Alex Ray, 15
- Carlen Gardner, 12
- Cade Clason, 11
- Mitchell Oldenburg, 8
- Adam Enticknap, 7
- Kevin Moranz, 5
- Justin Starling, 3
- Austin Politelli, 3
- Fredrik Norén, 2
- Scott Champion, 2
- Tyler Bowers, 1