Although the 2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series’ unpredictability continued at Houston 3, some patterns are starting to emerge. We’re going to dig into the numbers and come up with some 2021 Indianapolis 1 Fantasy Supercross Tips for RMFantasySX.com on January 30.
- There were no new Top 5 finishers at Houston 3. Because of that bit of consistency, there are now five riders who have been in the Top 5 at least twice in three rounds—Justin Barcia, Adam Cianciarulo, Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, and Cooper Webb. Those five riders make for a solid basis for your RMFantasySX Top 5 for Indy 1.
- Ken Roczen has been in the Top 5 in all three rounds. No matter what, he should be in your Indianapolis 1 Top 5.
- Amazingly, Roczen is also the only rider with two podiums in the three opening rounds. However, despite having more podiums than any other rider, Roczen has yet to win.
- None of the riders on the Houston 3 podium was on the Houston 2 podium. Not only does no rider have any sort of winning momentum, but no rider even has podium momentum. Justin Brayton finished in P3 at Houston 2, and dropped to P10 at Houston 3. Even worse, H2 P2 finisher Dylan Ferrandis dropped to P12 at H3.
- Only two riders have been in the Top 8 at all three rounds. We’re already established that Roczen is one of them. The other is Malcolm Stewart, who has gone 5-7-6. I had Stewart at the P7 Wild Card at H3, and missed it by one position—along with plenty of other people.
- I am going to pick a fourth new winner of the season for round 4 at Indianapolis. Roczen was understandably unhappy coming into H3, having been docked four points for jumping on the red cross flag in chaotic first-lap conditions at H2. Roczen passed Webb on lap 3 for the lead, and it looked like Roczen was going to take the victory. Roczen held the lead for 23 laps. However, Webb made a final lap push, and Roczen got held up by lapper Dean Wilson. That was enough to give Webb an opening, and Webb turned the opportunity into a victory. Roczen was visibly angry after the race, and did not try to hide it on the podium. Look for the fallout from the last two races to give Roczen the motivation to win Indianapolis 1.
- To fill out the I1 podium, I’m going with the last two Main Event winners. Webb is on a 4-1 run, and Tomac is 1-5. It’s not an easy call, so it comes down to hunches. Tomac is a dependable bounce-back rider, so I’m selecting him as P2 behind Roczen at Indy 1, with Webb rounding out the podium in P3.
- That leaves Barcia and Cianciarulo taking the other two Top 5 spots. Barcia has been more consistent and higher scoring than Cianciarulo, so far, so Barcia gets P4. Cianciarulo might be a bit of a risky pick, as he has only finished in the Top 5 in consecutive races once in his 450SX career—Oakland and San Diego last year. Regardless, no one is clearly a better choice than Cianciarulo, so he gets the P5 nod.
- Let’s recap my Indianapolis 1 Top 5, in order:
1. Ken Roczen
2. Eli Tomac
3. Cooper Webb
4. Justin Barcia
5. Adam Cianciarulo
- There’s a good crowd bubbling under, ready to wreck my picks. Justin Brayton, Malcolm Stewart, Dylan Ferrandis, and Marvin Musquin have all scored a Top 5 finish. In fact, all of them, save Stewart, have a podium to their names. Stewart is the most consistent of the crowd, though consistency outside of the Top 5 doesn’t count for much in the RMFantasySX league—it’s Top 5 or bust.
- The Wild Card for I1 pick is P12 (Updated 1/29). Our first choice, Dean Wilson, has been hurt in a practice crash. The two other P12 finishers this year are Cianciarulo and Ferrandis—I wouldn’t be putting either of them down for P12. Wilson is something of an oasis in that finishing position, so it will take an outsider pick. Go with Broc Tickle, Joey Savatgy, or Benny Bloss. My pick will be Tickle.
- The big shock of the year has been the Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing team. At last year’s Monster Energy Supercross season finale, the team swept the podium with Zach Osborne, Jason Anderson, and Dean Wilson. This year, that same trio has yet to have a Top 7 finish, and they sit 10-12-13 in the standings. Only Osborne has been in the Top 10 at all three 2021 races, though P9 is his best finish. Anderson was a reliable Top 5 finisher last year. In 2021, Anderson has gone 15-8-8. It is truly perplexing, and they have some proving to do to get into my Top 5 as the season progresses.
- Marvin Musquin is the only rider to finish progressively worse at each round this year. While everyone is bouncing up and down, Musquin has gone 3-6-13. If you’re far behind in your Supercross fantasy lead, Musquin is a high-risk choice that could pay off. Otherwise, he needs to start moving in the right direction before being considered a smart Top 5 selection.
- Among riders in all three Main events, only Cooper Webb has improved at each round. His 9-4-1 charge is impressive. He’s likely to be a solid podium pick for a while.
- My RMFantasySX.com performance last week wasn’t great, so I’m far below my top one-percent target. Right now, I sit in the top 32 percent. I have plenty of room for improvement in the chaotic 2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series. As it stands, we’re still waiting for patterns to develop.
- Here’s how you watch Indianapolis 1. Check out our 2021 Supercross Television Schedule.
2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 3 of 17 rounds)
- Ken Roczen, 60 points (2 podiums, 3 Top 5s)
- Cooper Webb, 59 (1 win, 1 podium, 2 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 59 points (1 win, 1 podium, 2 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 54 (1 win, 1 podium, 2 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 51 (1 podium, 2 T5)
- Justin Brayton, 51 (1 podium, 1 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 51 (1 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 50 (1 podium, 1 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 48 (1 podium, 1 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 40
- Aaron Plessinger, 38
- Dean Wilson, 35
- Jason Anderson, 34
- Joey Savatgy, 23
- Broc Tickle, 22
- Kyle Chisholm, 18
- Vince Friese, 15
- Benny Bloss, 12
- Martín Dávalos, 12
- Chase Sexton, 10
- Brandon Hartranft, 8
- Alex Ray, 6
- Adam Enticknap, 3
- Carlen Gardner, 2
- Austin Politelli, 1