It has been a tricky year for fantasy supercross fans! Who would have thought that neither Ken Roczen nor Eli Tomac—the top two riders in the 2020 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series standings—would make the podium in San Diego. We certainly didn’t predict that, but that doesn’t stop us from giving it a clean shot at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
As usual, we are giving our tips for the Rocky Mountain ATV/MC’s RM Fantasy SX league. That means we will be suggesting the top 5 riders, plus the all-important Wild Card. For the Tampa Supercross, the Wild Card is 15th place. The lower the placing, the trickier it is to pick the right rider. However, if you do, you get the same 26 points that you get for calling the winner.
The first order of business is the top 5. Six riders have accounted for 26 of the 30 top 5 finishes in 2020—Jason Anderson (5), Eli Tomac (5), Cooper Webb (5), Ken Roczen (4), Justin Barcia (4), and Adam Cianciarulo (3). Two other riders—Blake Baggett and Zach Osborne—have two top 5 finishes each.
Baggett finished in P3 last week in San Diego, but it was his first top 5 since A1. Osborne went 4-5 at St. Louis and A2, but has been outside the top 10 at the other four races. Picking either of them for the top 5 is a longshot.
Selecting the top 5 out of the other six riders is where the points are won and lost. You have to put Anderson, Tomac, and Webb in your top 5. They have each been there in five of six rounds, so you’re almost guaranteed points from them. That leaves two slots and three riders.
Of those three riders, Roczen is a bit mercurial. If he’s not on the podium, he’s not in the top 5. Barcia has been in the top five at two of the last three rounds, but just barely, going 5-6-5. Cianciarulo is on a bit of a roll, going 4-2 in the previous two rounds. Given that, Cianciarulo deserves a top 5 ranking.
Picking between Barcia and Roczen is tricky. If you select Barcia for the P5 slot, you’ve made a safe choice. Roczen is podium or bust. That means you place him somewhere in the top 3, and cross your fingers, if you decide to go with Roczen. I’m a conservative prognosticator, so my top 5 for the 2020 Tampa Supercross is Anderson, Tomac, Webb, Barcia, and Cianciarulo. Next up is ranking them.
Tomac is your best bet for a win, having two this year. Slot Tomac in at #1. Webb is 2-1 at the last two races, so he gets the #2 spot. Cianciarulo has proven himself podium-worthy, as long as he doesn’t make an unforced error. Put him in at #3. Anderson had a horrible night in San Diego, but let’s consider that a mulligan. He’s 5-3-5-3-14. Picking him for P4 seems a bit odd, as he hasn’t finished in P4 yet, but that seems to make the most sense. Barcia is on a 5-6-5 rhythm, so he makes the most sense for P5.
To recap, the top 5 in order: Tomac, Webb, Cianciarulo, Anderson, Barcia.
There are three candidates for the Wild Card 15th Place pick. Tyler Bowers has gone 17-15-16-16 in the last four rounds, so he’s right there in that neighborhood consistently. Martin Davalos as two P15 finishes in 2020, but his results vary wildly—15-22-13-11-15-12. Finally, Vince Friese is often right around P15 at the end of the main—10-14-11-14-14-15. It’s a hard call. P15 is Bowers’ best finish of the year, and it is Friese’s worst. Davalos has finished better and worse. It’s a triple coin flip, but I’m going with Friese.
Good luck, and feel free to post your picks in the comments. Be prepared to gloat or eat crow after the checkered flag!