- Going into Orlando, the podium still looks like Ken Roczen, Cooper Webb, and Eli Tomac. Musquin was on the I3 podium thanks to Friese’s drift through the air into Barcia’s line, and you can’t count on that every week. At this point, the Roczen, Webb, and Tomac trio are the way to go for the O1 podium.
- Ken Roczen is on a roll, and there’s no sense it’s going away. Roczen is a prohibitive favorite going into O1, so picking him to win is an obvious choice. However, putting him elsewhere is taking a chance of losing lots of points. I’m with Roczen as the winner.
- Picking between Eli Tomac and Cooper Webb for P2 and P3 is genuinely a toss-up. In the previous five races, Tomac has beaten Webb three times—the slimmest of margins. I go with the numbers over hunches, so mark me down for Tomac in P2 and Webb in P3. Don’t be the least bit surprised if that’s one position off for each of them.
- Adam Cianciarulo and Justin Barcia remain favorites to round out the Top 5. Cianciarulo has as many Top 5s as Tomac. Even with the Friese collision, Barcia still has more Top 5s than any other rider outside of Roczen, Webb, Tomac, and Cianciarulo. Plus, in the six rounds, Barcia rotates in and out of the Top 5 at every other race. So, Barcia is due back in at Orlando 1. Barcia and Cianciarulo are very evenly matched—Barcia has one more podium, while Cianciarulo has one more Top 5. I’m looking at Barcia in P4 and Cianciarulo in P5, which may evaporate if Barcia doesn’t get a good start. Cross your fingers, Barcia backers.
- Your dark horse picks for the Top 5 are Malcolm Stewart and Marvin Musquin. Both riders have two Top 5s in six rounds. That’s not a great record. Musquin is especially feast-or-famine, as both of his Top 5s are podiums. If you put Musquin on the podium and hit it, you’ll pick up points on most of your competitors. If you’re going to pick Stewart, he’s definitely a P5 play.
- The Wild Card is P8, and most people will be going with Joey Savatgy or Jason Anderson. Savatgy is on an 8-8-9 run, so that’s about as good as you’re going to get. Anderson has gone 8-8-7-6 in his last four starts, so he’s right there. Digging down a little deeper, Dylan Ferrandis was P8 last Saturday, and Aaron Plessinger is often in the P8 vicinity. So far, Plessinger has finished P7, P8, and P9 this year, so P8 is certainly a possibility. You can also throw Zach Osborne into the mix, as he’s 10-10-9-5-7-10 so far—no P8, but always right around there. With all those options, I’m sticking with Savatgy and his 8-8-9 scorecard from Indy.
- For the tl;dr crowd, here are my picks for Orlando 1:
2. Eli Tomac
3. Cooper Webb
4. Justin Barcia
5. Adam CianciaruloP8 Wild Card: Joey Savatgy
- To give you an idea of how hard picking the Top 5 has been this year, the RMFantasySX leader, Yourdadsh, has just 384 points over six rounds. That’s an average of only 64 points per Supercross Main Event out of a possible 133. I seem to be perpetually swapping out in the whoops and casing triples, so I’m in the top 29-percent—a far cry from last year’s top one-percent finish. However, there are still 11 races to be run!
- Here’s how you watch Orlando 1: Check our 2021 Supercross Television Schedule.
- Ken Roczen, 138 points (3 wins, 5 podiums, 6 Top 5s)
- Cooper Webb, 122 (1W, 3P, 5 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 114 (1W, 3P, 4 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 105 (1P, 4 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 96 points (1W, 2P, 3 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 96 (1P, 1 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 95 (2 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 94 (2P, 2 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 87 (1 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 82 (1 T5)
- Justin Brayton, 74 (1P, 1 T5)
- Joey Savatgy, 67
- Jason Anderson, 67
- Broc Tickle, 52
- Martín Dávalos, 37
- Dean Wilson, 35
- Kyle Chisholm, 35
- Vince Friese, 34
- Benny Bloss, 27
- Justin Bogle, 24
- Brandon Hartranft, 19
- Carlen Gardner, 12
- Chase Sexton, 10
- Alex Ray, 9
- Adam Enticknap, 7
- Cade Clason, 4
- Austin Politelli, 3