- Ken Roczen, Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac, and Adam Cianciarulo and are Top 5 locks. If they don’t make your Top 5, you’re risking losing points. Roczen has been in the Top 5 in all four races, with the other three riders each missing the top 5 once. That leaves one more rider to join them.
- Justin Barcia is the only other rider with two Top 5 finishes. Barcia alternates in and out of the Top 5. Barcia finished in P13 at I1, so his rhythm tells you that he’ll be back in the Top 5 at I2. That gives you your best Top 5 picks quickly and easily. However, putting them in order is quite a bit trickier, and that’s where the big points are won and lost.
- Your podium is a toss-up between Roczen, Webb, and Tomac. All three have the same wins, podiums, and nearly points, over the last three rounds. Forgetting Roczen’s penalty, Roczen and Tomac have scored 67 points each in the previous three rounds, with Webb taking 66. That’s parity. They each have a win and two podiums. Webb loses a bit because his podiums are a win and P3, while Roczen and Tomac scored a win and P2. However, Webb’s worst finish in the last three rounds is a P4. It’s P5 for Roczen and Tomac. Yes, they’re that close.
- Of the Roczen, Tomac, and Webb trio, Tomac has gone the longest without a win. That makes Tomac the hungriest, so I’m going with Tomac as the I2 winner. Cooper has been a come-from-behind rider, and that’s always risky. Given that, I’ll go with Roczen in P2, Cooper in P3, Cianciarulo in P4, and Barcia in P5. Just to throw in a bit of doubt, Cianciarulo is the only rider in the Top 5 of the standings who doesn’t have a win.
- If you’re not sold on Barcia, there are quite a few options. Five other riders have Top 5 finishes, so they’re the best place to start.
- Zach Osborne is the man on the move. He has gone 10-10-9-5. Most impressively, he went into the Top 5 at I1 after getting hung up in the gate. It’s the second time this year that Osborne left turn one in last place. Osborne would be my best Barcia alternative. I think Osborne may establish himself as a Top 5 regular, much his teammate Jason Anderson did last year. In the meantime, Barcia should have at least one more Top 5 in him, and I2 fits the bill. Certainly, Osborne is a good P5 pick, but keep in mind that he has disappointed three times out of four.
- The other two Top 5 finishers this year are Dylan Ferrandis and Malcolm Stewart. Both are fully capable of returning to the Top 5. Ferrandis finished in P6 after jumping off the track at I1, while Stewart got tangled with Barcia in the first corner, wrecking the night for both of them. If either of these riders gets a start and Barcia doesn’t, they could easily hit the Top 5.
- It’s hard to get excited about Marvin Musquin or Justin Brayton for the Top 5. Neither has done better than P10 in the last two rounds. They may mount a comeback, but I would wait for that to happen.
- The Wild Card is P9, and it’s a tough one. Based on past performance, Osborne is the natural pick for P9. He went 10-10-9 in the first three rounds. However, Osborne was in the Top 5 at I1 and did it the hard way. Anderson has gone 8-8-7 at the last three rounds. It doesn’t seem like he’ll slip to P9, but keep him in mind. Scott Plessinger has an 8-16-7-9 record so far—P9 looks good for him. Brayton is 10-12 in the last two rounds, so P9 isn’t out of the question. Musquin is 13-10, so the same goes for him. Savatgy was P8 at I1, so he’s in the mix. For me, it’s Plessinger for the Wild Card.
- As a reminder, here are my I2 picks:
1. Eli Tomac
3. Cooper Webb
4. Adam Cianciarulo
5.Justin BarciaWild Card: Aaron Plessinger11. Here’s how you watch Indianapolis 2. Check out our 2021 Supercross Television Schedule.2021 Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 4 of 17 rounds)
- Ken Roczen, 86 points (1 win, 3 podiums, 4 Top 5s)
- Cooper Webb, 80 (1W, 2P, 3 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 77 (1W, 2P, 3 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, 70 (1P, 3 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 69 points (1W, 1P, 2 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 67 (1P, 1 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 63 (1 T5)
- Justin Brayton, 62 (1P, 1 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 61 (1P, 1 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 58 (1 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 52
- Jason Anderson, 50
- Joey Savatgy, 38
- Dean Wilson, 35
- Broc Tickle, 31
- Kyle Chisholm, 21
- Vince Friese, 21
- Martín Dávalos, 20
- Benny Bloss, 16
- Brandon Hartranft, 13
- Chase Sexton, 10
- Justin Bogle, 10
- Alex Ray, 6
- Adam Enticknap, 4
- Austin Politelli, 3
- Carlen Gardner, 2