With four rounds completed, the 2023 AMA Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series has taken shape. With the loss of Dylan Ferrandis and Malcolm Stewart to injuries, picking the top 5 riders in RMFantasySX.com leagues has gotten much more straightforward. However, getting the top 5 in the correct order remains a tall order. Last week, only one player nailed down a perfect score—clairefoxx. Let’s see how the racing at Raymond James Stadium is stacking up and give you our 2023 Tampa Supercross fantasy tips and picks.
- The weather is going to make this one unpredictable. According to the Weather Underground forecast, there’s over a 50 percent chance of rain from 2 p.m. until the end of racing at 10 p.m. EST. There’s an 82 percent chance of rain at 7 p.m. when the first gate drops. Strap on your helmet, and good luck—there could be some big shockers.
- Rain or not, Eli Tomac is the man to beat. Tomac has won every Main Event this year, only faltering in one of the Triple Crown races. Additionally, Tomac won the last two Tampa Supercross rounds in 2020 and 2018. The only other rider lining up with a Tampa SX win is Shane McElrath, though that was in the 250SX class in 2020. Tomac is a firm favorite.
- Chase Sexton will be hounding Tomac all night. In four rounds, Sexton has been on the podium three times and has finished in the top 5 every time. He won the A2 Triple Crown and was runner-up at Houston. Sexton will always feel like Houston got away due to his sand troubles. There will be more sand at Tampa, so this probably won’t be the night Sexton beats Tomac in the Main. Still, Sexton is a strong P2 pick.
- After a slow start to 2023, Jason Anderson has established himself on the podium. After a 7-7 start, Anderson is 2-3 and is riding confidently, even if he doesn’t sound it when he’s interviewed. While Anderson isn’t riding as fast as Sexton or Tomac, he has the rest of the field covered. Mark down Anderson for P3.
- Although he lost the mojo he had in the first two rounds, Cooper Webb is a reliable top 5 finisher. Webb started off 2-2 and has slipped to 4-5 in the last two rounds. That’s an impressive track record, and he has rewarded you well if you picked him for the top 5 at each round. He isn’t displaying podium speed right now, so P4 it is for Webb.
- There are three candidates for P5—Justin Barcia, Aaron Plessinger, and Ken Roczen. Barcia is fast, but has only one top 5 result in four rounds, having gone 11-3-8-6. While he’s a risky choice, Barcia has had rain success. Plessinger broke out of his 8-9-7 doldrums to take a P4 in Houston last week, his first top 5 of the year. After a 5-4-3 start, Roczen slipped to a P8 finish in Houston. With three top 5 results in four rounds, Roczen is my choice for P5.
- Outside of the seven riders mentioned, there won’t be any other top 5 finishers at the line at the Tampa Supercross. Anyone else is a long shot. However, the high likelihood of rain might embolden you to roll the dice with Adam Cianciarulo, Colt Nichols, or Joey Savatgy. Amazingly, we’re now out of riders with a top 10 finish!
- The Wild Card is P14, and there are plenty of choices. Justin Hill (15-13-14-20) and Dean Wilson (14-14-13-12) immediately come to mind. Secondary options include Shane McElrath (16-16-15) and Kevin Moranz, who finished in P14 last week. With the rider losses and his slight improvement last week, I’m going with McElrath by a hair over Wilson. You might want to pick Wilson, as I seem to be one rider off for the Wild Card most weeks.
- Last week was good for me, as it was for plenty of players. I racked up 59 points, which puts me in the top third of nearly 115,000 RMFantasySX.com players. Given that I was in the bottom 10 percent after week one, I’ll take it!
- If you plan on watching the race, check out our 2023 Supercross Television Schedule. Also, keep an eye on the weather forecast.
tl;dr 2023 Tampa Supercross Fantasy Picks
- Eli Tomac
- Chase Sexton
- Jason Anderson
- Cooper Webb
- Ken Roczen
Wild Card P14: Shane McElrath
Photography by Ryne Sandburg et al.
2023 AMA Monster Energy Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 4 of 17 rounds)
- Eli Tomac, Yamaha, 95 points (3 wins, 3 podiums, 3 top fives)
- Chase Sexton, Honda, 88 (1W, 3P, 4 T5)
- Cooper Webb, KTM, 83 (2P, 4 T5)
- Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 76 (2P, 2 T5)
- Ken Roczen, Suzuki, 73 (1P, 3 T5)
- Justin Barcia, GasGas, 65 (1P, 1 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 64 (1 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, Yamaha, 56 (2 T5)
- Adam Cianciarulo, Kawasaki, 56
- Joey Savatgy, Kawasaki, 53
- Colt Nichols, Honda, 49
- Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 46
- Dean Wilson, Honda, 39
- Justin Hill, KTM, 30
- Shane McElrath, Suzuki, 22
- Justin Starling, GasGas, 18
- Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 16
- Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 15
- Fredrik Norén, Kawasaki, 14
- Kevin Moranz, KTM, 13
- Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 12
- Marvin Musquin, KTM, 11
- Josh Cartwright, Kawasaki, 11
- Cade Clason, Kawasaki, 9
- John Short, Kawasaki, 7
- Grant Harlan, Yamaha, 6
- Benny Bloss, Yamaha, 6
- Josh Hill, KTM, 5
- Alex Ray, Yamaha, 2