- There is a reliable Top 5 developing for Arlington 3, especially when you consider season-long performances. Webb and Roczen have 10 Top 5s each—done deal. Tomac and Justin Barcia each have 7 Top 5s this year. All four of these riders were in the Top 4 at A2. Leaving them out of the Top 5 at A3 is difficult to justify. The fifth Top 5 rider is Chase Sexton, who is 4-5 at the first two Arlington rounds. So, we have a Top 5, but the order needs to be sorted out. That is the difference between an okay fantasy supercross round and a big points haul.
- Cooper Webb remains the prohibitive favorite. You won’t gain points on many competitors by picking Webb to win, but to go with someone else risks a big loss that could easily have been avoided. Just as Roczen swept Indy, look for Webb to make it three-in-a-row at Arlington. He has nailed it at A1 and A2, and Roczen and Tomac are starting to sound unsure of themselves.
- Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac are still good choices to round out the podium. The hard reality is that it comes down to starts. You’ll pretty much know after the first turn or two if Roczen or Tomac are going to be on the podium or not. However, with 12 podiums between the two riders, they remain podium favorites. Tomac sounded better than Roczen after Arlington 2, and Tomac was clearly faster than Roczen. It makes sense to go with Tomac in P2 and Roczen in P3. That would be a podium repeat, which hasn’t happened this year. However, the only trio that has made up the podium twice this year is Roczen, Tomac, and Webb at I1 and A2.
- Justin Barcia’s comeback performance was impressive at A2, and he is a podium threat at Arlington 3. Again, Barcia got a poor start, and that doomed his podium prospects. At this point, we’re pretty much picking starts rather than finishes. Barcia is a genuine podium threat, if he gets a start. If not, he’s still a solid Top 5 selection. I have Barcia in P4.
- Chase Sexton is podium-bound, but it is hard to tell when. Sexton’s P5 at Arlington is excellent for a rookie, but he was almost 25 seconds behind Webb and just less than 17 seconds off the podium. That’s a lot of ground to make up. Sexton started in P4 and ended up in P5. A better start could make a difference, but a P4 start is good enough to challenge for the podium, if not a win. Not going with Sexton for the Top 5 is dicey.
- The two other Top 5 riders at the first two Arlington rounds are Jason Anderson and Aaron Plessinger, both from A1. Plessinger has a 5-6, and Anderson went 3-7 after going down in the first corner of A2. Sure, you can put them in your Top 5, but you’ll be making a hard choice to jettison any of my Top 5 picks. Missing from the usual Top 5 discussion is Malcolm Stewart. He’s 14-13 in the first two Arlington rounds, after taking himself out in A1 and crashing on lap 2 at A3. Stewart could come out of nowhere at A3. If you need to make up some points on your competitors, Anderson, Plessinger, and Stewart are your best Top 5 outsider picks. Any selection beyond these three is speculative.
- My Top 5 for Arlington 3 duplicates A2’s Top 5 results. While that’s not likely, it’s difficult for me to justify any other picks. I go with the numbers, and this is what they tell me. One bad start, as we know, can ruin an RMFantasySX player’s night very quickly.
- The Wild Card P12 on Saturday, and that offers some interesting choices. Justin Bogle is an obvious choice—he has finished in P12 the last two rounds. Dean Wilson has three P12 finishes, though he’s on a 10-9-10 run. Joey Savatgy is on a 12-7-11 run, so he’s in the picture, as is Vince Friese with his 13-11-14 record in the last three rounds. It’s a longshot, but Malcolm Stewart has gone 14-13 over the previous two rounds, just to give you something to think about. Only one rider has finished in the same position three Main Events in a row—Roczen when he swept Indy—so that doesn’t bode well for a Bogle pick. I’m going with Friese.
- Let’s quickly recap for everyone who’s not interested in the commentary:
1. Cooper Webb
2. Eli Tomac
3. Ken Roczen
4. Justin Barcia
5. Chase Sexton
Wild Card P12: Vince Friese10. With 59 points and four of the Top 5 riders, I thought I did okay—I didn’t. There were 30 perfect scores of 133 for A2. Leaving Tomac out of the Top 5 at A2 was an obvious mistake, and Joey Savatgy never challenged for the P8 Wild Card slot. Keep in mind that if you scored 59 points in every round, you’d be at the top of the RMFantasySX leaderboard with 649 points. The leader right now is Monteslady, with 633 points. It hasn’t been an easy year for anyone. As I was last week, I’m just outside of the top five-percent of RMFantasySX players.11. We have a 2021 Monster Energy Supercross TV Schedule to make sure you don’t miss Arlington 2, or any other race. Keep in mind that the NBCSN coverage of A2 and A3 is delayed at least two hours. If you haven’t already, it’s time to pony up for PeacockTV.com. Really, at $4.99 a month, it’s a great value. Remember, qualifying from every round is shown live on the Peacock feed.Photography by Align Media, Feld Entertainment, et al2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series Standings (after 11 of 17 rounds)
- Cooper Webb, 249 points (5 wins, 8 podiums, 10 Top 5s)
- Ken Roczen, 237 (3W, 7P, 10 T5)
- Eli Tomac, 213 (2W, 5P, 7 T5)
- Justin Barcia, 195 points (1W, 4P, 7 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, 169 (1 P, 3 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, 162 (3 T5)
- Jason Anderson, 153 (1 P, 2 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, 137 (1P, 1 T5)
- Marvin Musquin, 135 (3P, 3 T5)
- Zach Osborne, 123 (1P, 2 T5)
- Joey Savatgy, 123
- Adam Cianciarulo, 120 (1P, 4 T5)
- Dean Wilson, 97
- Justin Brayton, 96 (1P, 1 T5)
- Martín Dávalos, 84
- Vince Friese, 81
- Justin Bogle, 78
- Broc Tickle, 69
- Kyle Chisholm, 64
- Chase Sexton, 62 (2 T5)
- Benny Bloss, 48
- Max Anstie, 28
- Brandon Hartranft, 23
- Cade Clason, 16
- Shane McElrath, 15
- Alex Ray, 15
- Carlen Gardner, 12
- Mitchell Oldenburg, 8
- Kevin Moranz, 7
- Adam Enticknap, 7
- Justin Starling, 6
- Tyler Bowers, 5
- Austin Politelli, 3
- Fredrik Norén, 2
- Scott Champion, 2
- Joan Cros, 1