As the 2021 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship Series reveals itself, it continues to confound fantasy Supercross players at RMFantasySX.com. Patterns emerge, and then the results upset the predictions. It’s fun, and it is frustrating. Let’s see what makes sense for our 2021 Orlando 2 Fantasy Supercross tips. I have a few statistical analyses that will surprise you, just like they did me. This one’s a bit heavy on math, and there will be a grade after the race.
Ken Roczen is having a season worthy of MotoGP’s Marc Márquez. In six of seven rounds, Roczen has either won or finished on the podium. The tricky thing is, he has three wins and three P2s. Had you picked Roczen to win every round or come in P2 every round, you would have exactly the same points from his performances—113 points. If you play hunches and get it right, there’s a considerable upside. However, if your instincts are off, you will lose quite a few points.
Cooper Webb is clearly the other Top 2 pick, but there’s a twist. If you picked Webb to come in P2 at every race this year, you would have gotten 63 points out of his results. However, if you liked him for P1 at all seven rounds, you’d have scored 67 points. The difference is that Webb has two wins, and only one P2. Given that, I’m going with Cooper Webb to win at O2, with Roczen in P2.
There have been six different P3 finishers in seven rounds, so no one is a lock for the podium’s last spot.
Marvin Musquin is the only repeat P3 finisher, but those are also his only Top 5 finishes. He’s a feast-or-famine pick, though hitting those two P3s would have gotten you 42 points.
If you had picked either Eli Tomac or Adam Cianciarulo for P3 at every round, you’d have the same results. This is another non-intuitive one. One would think Tomac would be a better P3 pick than Cianciarulo. However, the numbers are a toss-up. For me, the tiebreaker is that Tomac has more Top 5 finishes, so I’m going with Tomac for the O2 P3 pick.
Choosing between Justin Barcia and Adam Cianciarulo for P4 is a tough one. Cianciarulo is a higher points-paying pick than Barcia for either P4 or P5. Cianciarulo is worth 58 points as a year-long P4 pick, compared to 48 points for Barcia. For P5, the difference is 43 to 38 in Cianciarulo’s favor. So, here’s the way to look at it. If you went with Cianciarulo in P4 all year and Barcia in P5, you’d score 96 points. Swap the two riders, and you get 91 points. Just like with Roczen and Webb, it’s close. However, the numbers say Cianciarulo in P4 and Barcia in P5, so that’s how I’m picking.
You can pick a few longshots for the Top 5, if you’re willing to take a risk. Zach Osborne has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races, and Aaron Plessinger has gone 5-11-6 in the three previous races. Malcolm Stewart and Marvin Musquin were in the Top 5 at Indy 3.
With 20/20 hindsight, my total before Wild Cards would have been 338 points if I had gone through the first seven rounds with Webb, Roczen, Tomac, Cianciarulo, and Barcia in that order at every race. That’s good enough for the top three-percent, and that’s with no Wild Card hits. Given my attempts to read early tea leaves, I have just 271 points, which puts me in the top 28-percent. That’s okay, but nowhere near my preseason expectations. After seven Main Events, Puplvr is the #1 RMFantasySX.com player with 450 points out of a possible 931 points. That’s an average of just over 64 points per round—about the points you’d get for hitting P2, P3, and P4 perfectly, with no other points. We all have lots of room for improvement.
Picking the Wild Card—P13—is the usual challenge. There have been six different P13 finishes in seven Main Events. The only repeat P13 rider is Broc Tickle. However, Tickle was on a 14-12-13 run coming into O1, where he failed to make the Main. Bloss is probably the best choice, as he is on a 13-22-14 run over the last three races. Mártin Dávalos and Vince Friese are in that range, though neither has been as high as P13 all year. You can throw Justin Brayton (12-22-12-11) and Dean Wilson (P12 last week) into the mix. I’m going to go with Bloss.
If all that math was too much for you, here are my Orlando 2 picks: